In an 11-team conference and a 27-team league, records only tell part of the story. A 1-2 start can be better than 2-0 if the competition is tougher, while beginning with a pair of losses can carry more promise than the standings suggest.
Through three weeks especially, quality of play matters just as much as wins and losses — and that’s exactly what makes the Week 4 clash between Ottawa (2-1) and Guelph (1-2) such an intriguing affair.
Each team has did what they are supposed to do through three games.
The Gee-Gees have handled Waterloo and York not with ease, but with cushion, and lost to the 3-0 Western Mustangs in similar fashion.
The Gryphons have been much more volatile, going down big in Week 1 against Laurier before climbing back to a five-point loss in the second half.
Guelph also suffered a big but expected loss to Western, and again went down a pair of scores against Windsor before completing a comeback to win 31-17.
Surprisingly, the Gee-Gees and Gryphons have played just twice since the pandemic, last year’s quarterfinal matchup, which Guelph won 26-15, and a 2022 thumping by the Gee-Gees at TD Place.
Run the damn ball
Guelph was buoyed by the return of Donavin Milloy in the win against Windsor, the fourth-year running back who ran for 137 yards and two scores, including a 69-yard touchdown to break a 17-17 deadlock in the fourth quarter.
Along with Isaiah Smith, who has ran for 199 yards on just 21 attempts and caught 10 passes for 126 yards through three games, the Gryphons boast one of the best ground games not just in Ontario, but in Canada.
Only the Mustangs (777) have ran for more yards than Guelph’s 691, a figure that is more than double Ottawa’s 325 yards.
While sometimes there’s a bit of give-and-take with rushing and passing yards, there is no such story in The Royal City. Guelph leads the entire country in total offence (555 yards per game), with 974 passing yards in addition to those rushing yards.
Quarterback Tristan Aboud is one of the league’s best dual threats, passing for 876 yards, four touchdowns albeit two interceptions, and rushing 15 times for 130 yards and two scores on the ground too.
Windsor, however, had a beat on Aboud. After rushing 13 times for 125 yards against Laurier and Western, the Lancers held the mobile quarterback to just five yards on two attempts. Ottawa’s ability to force Aboud to pass the ball and take away his legs could be a key to the game.
Janssen superb through three games
Ottawa stacks up better in the passing game at least, to the Gryphons. Fourth-year quarterback Josh Janssen has impressed, completing 64-of-93 passes (68.8 completion percentage) for 799 yards, seven touchdowns (tied for first in the country) and just one pick.
Maybe it was the turf at Western Alumni Stadium, but Janssen didn’t very composed when his pocket collapsed, falling twice when scrambling. He also fumbled the ball twice while being sacked, though the second was due to a clear missed block on his blindside that led to him taking a heavy hit.
Nevertheless, there was a ton to like about his game. He fit balls in tight windows for his receivers time after time, showing a chemistry especially with rookie Emyl Gregoire, who had his breakout performance against Western.
With Romeo Lussier out in Week 3, the Gee-Gees spread the ball around, with all seven receivers recording receptions on more than 12 yards. Gregoire, Robin Collioud, Tristan Gilbert Thibeault, and Thomas Frizzarin all record touchdowns in the loss.
In their first pass script of the season, Charles Asselin and Souleymane Camara combined for just 17 rushes and 85 yards on the ground. That’s been the story of the season, with Asselin yet to dominate as expected.
If Guelph focuses more on slowing the now-proven aerial attack from Janssen, it could really open up runs for the Gee-Gees.
Sacks and the city
Okay, enough about the offences. Both teams really get their flowers for their defensive play, too.
Louis Prince and Riley Hildebrandt have proved a daunting duo on the defensive line for the Gees, recording three and 2.5 sacks on the young season, respectively.
The latest standouts in the Gee-Gees linebacking factory are veterans Daniel Briere, Jaxxon Brashear, and Marc Djonay Rondeau. That trio will be key to stopping the run on Saturday.
Last fall, this Gee-Gees defence held Aboud to just 91 yards on 8-of-16 passing in their windy playoff loss. Unsurprisingly, it was the rush game that enabled the Gryphons to put up 26 points in the victory.
Brashear and Djonay Rondeau got to Aboud for sacks in the loss, but the Gryphons got to Janssen even more, sacking him three times for a combined 30 yards, part of the team’s eight tackles for loss on the afternoon.
Buying time for their quarterbacks in the pocket will be key for both offensive lines on Saturday afternoon — and a tough task for both, as Guelph is coming off a season-high five-sack performance at Windsor.
Jack Cobb led the way with 1.5 of those sacks, while third-year linebacker Nicholas Metron was all over the score sheet, recording 11 solo tackles.
After three weeks, Ottawa and Guelph will finally get a clear picture of where they stand in the OUA when the final whistle blows.
Kickoff g0es 1 p.m. at Alumni Stadium.