What’s true right now (before the Oct 10 games)
- Already in: Western (6–0), Laurier (6–0), Queen’s (5–2).
- Out: Toronto (1–6). With only one game left, they can’t get to three wins. And with the remaining lower-tier matchups, there will be at least eight teams with three or more wins.
- Still alive: Windsor, Carleton, Ottawa (all 3–3); York, McMaster (2–4); Guelph, Waterloo (2–5).
Race for No. 1 (the bye)
- Only Western and Laurier can get the bye.
- If both win on Oct 10, they’ll be 7–0 and Oct 18 (Laurier at Western) decides No. 1 by head to head.
Fight for No. 3 (home quarterfinal)
Queen’s (5–2)
- Beat Windsor (Oct 18): 6–2 → locks the 3-seed by most wins.
- Lose to Windsor: 5–3 → could tie with Windsor and maybe Carleton or Ottawa.If it’s just Queen’s vs Windsor, the Oct 18 head to head sets the order.
If it’s 3+ teams:
- Queen’s > Carleton > Windsor (by common opponents; Carleton over Windsor by record vs top teams)
- Ottawa > Queen’s > Windsor (common opponents tie at 3–2 vs the shared set; Windsor is 2–3, so last. Between Ottawa and Queen’s, record vs the top teams breaks it at the “Windsor” line: Ottawa 1–0, Queen’s 0–1).
Sorting seeds 4–6 (home/road QFs)
Teams: Windsor (3–3), Carleton (3–3), Ottawa (3–3)
Ottawa (vs Windsor, vs Toronto)
- 2–0: 5–3 → likely a 4/5 seed.
- Split: 4–4 → safely in; order depends on ties.
- 0–2: 3–5 → in the 3–5 crowd.H2H notes: beat Guelph 30–23, Waterloo 27–12, York 33–17; lost to Carleton 14–20.
Carleton (@ Laurier, @ McMaster)
- 2–0: 5–3 (needs an upset at Laurier) → 4/5 range; owns head to head over Ottawa.
- Split: 4–4 → in; order depends on ties.
- 0–2: 3–5 → into the scrum.
Windsor (@ Ottawa, @ Queen’s)
- 2–0: 5–3 → would mean they beat Queen's and own the head to head and the 3-seed
- Split: 4–4 → in.
- 0–2: 3–5 → into the scrum. H2H: lost to Guelph 17–31, beat York 35–0, McMaster 29–13, Waterloo 35–0.
The 7-seed bubble (and why one 3–5 team misses)
Two lower-tier games are left: Waterloo @ McMaster (Oct 10) and York @ Guelph (Oct 18). That guarantees at least two more teams reach 3 wins. With the current three-win teams, that means at least one 3–5 team will miss on tiebreakers.
McMaster (2–4) vs Waterloo (2–5), Oct 10 — play-in feel
- If McMaster wins: 3–4 now; then beats Carleton (Oct 18) to finish 4–4 and they're safe. If they finish 3–5, they need tiebreakers. H2H so far: beat Guelph 25–15, lost to York 24–31.
- If Waterloo wins: they finish 3–5 and need help. H2H: beat York 34–33; did not play Guelph.
York (2–4)
- @ Western, then @ Guelph.
- Likely path: lose to Western (2–5), beat Guelph → 3–5. In a three-way with McMaster & Waterloo, York is 1–1 in H2H, so it could go to point difference in those head-to-head games (see below).
Guelph (2–5)
- Only York left.
- Win: 3–5 with strong H2H cards: beat Carleton 55–28 (counts as +25 because of the cap) and beat Windsor 31–17.
- Lose: 2–6 and out.
Tiebreakers that will matter most
Two-team ties — use head to head
- Queen’s vs Windsor (both 5–3): Oct 18 decides 3/4.
- Ottawa vs Carleton: Carleton won (20–14).
- York vs McMaster: York won (31–24).
- Guelph vs Carleton: Guelph won (55–28, capped at +25).
- Guelph vs Windsor: Guelph won (31–17).
- Waterloo vs York: Waterloo won (34–33).
- Waterloo vs McMaster: Oct 10 decides.
Three-team tiebreaks — use point difference within those head-to-head games (cap ±25 per game)
Carleton–Ottawa–Guelph at 3–5
- Carleton: +6 vs Ottawa, –25 vs Guelph → –19 total.
- Ottawa: +7 vs Guelph, –6 vs Carleton → +1 total.
- Guelph: +25 vs Carleton (capped), –7 vs Ottawa → +18 total.
- Order: Guelph > Ottawa > Carleton.
York–McMaster–Waterloo at 3–5
- York already +7 vs McMaster and –1 vs Waterloo → +6 total.
- The McMaster–Waterloo margin tonight will decide the rest. A McMaster win greater than 7 would give them the advantage; a Waterloo win makes them 2–0 in the group and puts them first.
One simple projection
If favourites mostly win from here:
- 1 Western 8–0 (bye)
- 2 Laurier 7–1
- 3 Queen’s 6–2
- 4 Ottawa 5–3
- 5 Windsor 4–4 (ahead of McMaster by head to head)
- 6 McMaster 4–4
- 7 Guelph 3–5 (ahead of Carleton by head to head; Carleton 3–5 misses)
Quarterfinals (Oct 25): 7 Guelph @ 2 Laurier • 6 McMaster @ 3 Queen’s • 5 Windsor @ 4 Ottawa
What to watch this weekend (and why)
Waterloo @ McMaster (Fri, Oct 10)
McMaster win keeps them in control, Waterloo win puts them in tiebreak limbo and McMaster in a must-win against Carleton next week
Carleton @ Laurier (Fri, Oct 10)
Upset keeps Carleton in the 4–5 seed race; a loss pushes them toward the 7 seed scrum and a critical matchup against McMaster next week.
Windsor @ Ottawa (Sat, Oct 11)
Winner grabs head-to-head and a safer seed; loser risks falling into the 7-seed scrum.
Next Weekend
York @ Guelph (Sat, Oct 18)
Guelph wins they are probably in, York needs a win and some help
Laurier @ Western (Sat, Oct 18)
Likely decides the top seed and the bye.