There is no mystery here.
The UBC Thunderbirds and Victoria Vikes have already seen every counter-punch the other can throw. Friday night at CARSA, they meet for the fourth time this season with the Canada West banner at stake.
Victoria holds the season edge 2-1, but each game told a different story.
On Nov. 7 in Vancouver, UBC snapped a 10-game skid in the rivalry with a 93-87 win behind Holt Tomie’s 24 points and a 55-18 advantage in paint scoring.
On Feb. 6 in Victoria, UBC rallied for an 85-76 win, closing on a defensive clampdown that held the Vikes to 27 second-half points.
Twenty-four hours later, Victoria answered with a 93-85 victory to claim the Pacific Division, fueled by Renoldo Robinson’s 24 points and six steals.
Forty minutes. No secrets left. One banner at stake.
How They Got Here
Victoria (17-3) have been an avalanche all season. The Vikes handled Trinity Western 95-67 in the quarterfinal before dismantling Alberta 97-74 in the semifinals.
UBC (16-4) survived a different kind of path. The Thunderbirds beat Manitoba 77-69 before surviving 92-89 in Winnipeg.
This final pits Victoria’s flow against UBC’s structure.
Tale of the Tape
Victoria
- 89.3 points per game
- 18.3 assists per game
- 35.8 rebounds per game
- All-stars: Ethan Boag (First Team), Shadynn Smid (Second Team), Renoldo Robinson (Third Team)
The Vikes play downhill. Their assist rate reflects a read-and-react system where multiple players initiate. Collapse the defence, spray it out, repeat.
They are most dangerous in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. Over-help against them and shooters make you pay. Stay at home and they attack the rim.
UBC
- 85.0 points per game
- 17.2 assists per game
- 40.8 rebounds per game
- All-Star: Nikola Guzina (First Team), All-Rookie: Edouard Gauthier
Where Victoria plays fast, UBC plays calculated.
The T-birds are ruthlessly efficient. Their field-goal percentage leads the conference because they take clean looks — rim attempts and rhythm threes. They don’t need volume; they hunt value.
UBC arrives with the conference’s cleanest statistical résumé. The Thunderbirds finished first in net rating (+14.6), first in effective field-goal percentage (56.4), and second in defensive rating (78.9). One player doesn’t have to carry them, their structure does.
The engines
Victoria’s offence is layered.
Boag (14.4 points per game) stretches the floor at 6-foot-9, shooting 39 per cent from three. Smid (12.6 points per game) is a finisher who thrives on interior touches and offensive rebounds. Geoffrey James spaces the floor, and Cameron Slaymaker punishes closeouts.
But the ignition switch is Robinson.
The Montreal guard averages 12.9 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists, but his impact goes beyond the box score. He changes pace, generates steals (58 on the season), and warps momentum.
When Robinson is firing on all cylinders, Victoria looks inevitable.
UBC counters with balance and interior gravity.
Guzina (15.6 points per game, 6.8 rebounds per game) is a 6-foot-10 load who shoots 55.4 per cent from the field, while Nylan Roberts (12.4 points per game, 7.1 rebounds per game) has quietly become a two-way disruptor and consistently out rebounds his position.
And then there is Holt Tomie.
The fifth-year guard averages 11.6 points and 5.1 assists per game, but in the biggest moments his usage spikes. He scored 26 in Victoria on Feb. 6 and delivered 18 in the Feb. 7 loss. He has 143 assists this season and shoots 81 per cent from the free-throw line.
UBC goes where Tomie takes them.
X-Factors
Paint scoring
UBC wins games when they dominate inside. Victoria needs to keep them to the perimeter and forces turnovers.
Turnovers
Victoria’s 7.8 steals per game create momentum swings, although UBC’s ball security could neutralize them. The Vikes’ depth allows them to maintain intensity on both sides of the ball; fresh legs mean sustained pressure.
Late-game execution
All three meetings this season were within reach in the fourth quarter. Victoria shoots 38.6 percent from deep; if they’re hot, the margins can expand — or evaporate — quickly. For UBC, limiting the quality of Victoria’s looks is all they can hope to do.
Coaching Chess Match
This is a coaching matchup between two of Canada West’s newest bench bosses.
Murphy Burnatowski has been nothing short of dominant in his first two seasons at the helm of Victoria, compiling a 37-3 conference record, and a staggering .925 winning percentage. Burnatowski is 7-1 in the playoffs and, dating back to last season’s national championship run, carries an overall record of 56-6.
Across the floor, Tahir Jalalpoor is in his rookie campaign after succeeding Kevin Hanson as interim head coach. Jalalpoor’s Thunderbirds do not gamble. They are deliberate, disciplined and leaning into a refined identity in the post-Hanson era.
The Bottom Line
Victoria leads the all-time series 118–101, outscoring UBC by a razor-thin 77.2 to 75.7 points per game across 219 meetings. The margin spanning decades? Just 1.5 per game.
Which makes the continuation of this rivalry even more fitting.
The 2025-26 Canada West championship is not a surprise matchup, it is a collision between two of the conference’s top-tier juggernauts. One built on tempo and offensive pressure, the other on efficiency and defensive control.
Victoria seeks another banner under Burnatowski and the No. one seed heading into nationals.
UBC craves validation — proof that their size and patience can beat the conference’s most explosive offence when it matters most.
There are no adjustments left to unveil. Only responses. Three meetings in one season is familiarity. A fourth meeting with a championship on the line is something else entirely.